Green Mountain Coffee Sales Ramping Up With Holiday

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David Evanson, Scott Van Winkle, Fall, 2011

Canaccord Genuity consumer analyst Scott Van Winkle reiterated his BUY rating and $94 price target on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) following an analysis of Black Friday sales.

He noted that early season sales appear stronger than prior years despite no real price promotion, that shelf space is up 30-50% compared to last year, and that brewer sales at Dunkin Donuts are running over double his estimate. Mr. Van Winkle said the following:

“Regarding other K-Cup market participants, Mr. Van Winkle said, “While Starbucks (SBUX) should clearly be incremental to brewer sales this holiday, we believe that [Mr. Coffee and Cuisinart, which make K-Cup brewers] and their advertising support are also incremental.”

Regarding holiday season sales, Mr. Van Winkle said, “. . . we still believe that the sales velocity is more important as the Christmas holiday approaches and husbands begin to shop. We would expect some retailer price promotion to materialize as the holiday approaches as well, which should add to the sales velocity.”