Green Mountain Shows Acceleration

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David Evanson and Scott Van Winkle, Winter, 2012

Following a robust first quarter (fiscal 2012) report for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Canaccord Genuity consumer analyst Scott Van Winkle reiterated his BUY rating and $94 price target on the company and raised his revenue estimates for 2012 and 2013. Noting he expects several years of rapid revenue and earnings growth, Mr. Van Winkle said:

“We assumed this year would be about earnings rather than beginning with accelerated momentum.” However, Van Winkle noted brewer sales momentum was the key Q1 take-away with GMCR selling 4.2M brewers versus his forecast of 2.8M. He also noted K-cup unit sales rose 81% versus his forecast of 62%.

Of brewer shipments he noted, “Brewer shipments are the true key to the first quarter results as the holiday season is the peak brewer selling season and the growing installed base will be what drives the company’s fundamentals.”