|Forbes.com, Spring, 2012. This article was placed on behalf of the U.S. based equity research effort of institutional broker and investment bank Canaccord Genuity. It was part of a series of articles developed under an agreement with forbes.com to work with a variety of contributors and assist them in delivering actionable investment ideas each week. The site, forbes.com is one of the top 500 sites in the world with nearly 10 million subscribers and approximately 100 million page views a month.|
Canaccord Genuity media analyst Thomas Eagan released a brief preview today of companies in his coverage universe.
Comcast (CMCSA): Continued RGU gains; positive basic adds a potential upside surprise Background and upside surprise. Comcast posted the best overall PayTV fundamentals in 2011. While the company’s FY12 OCF growth will likely be lower this year due to higher programming costs, we expect continued positive trends in customer growth
Dish Network (DISH): Net adds should (and better) continue.
Background and expectations. With the timing of the FCC decision-making on the uses of DISH spectrum likely on hold until late Q4/12 (at the earliest), the focus returns to DISH’s PayTV fundamentals. With continued push of the Blockbuster campaign into early 2012, we expect the turn-around in customer growth to continue into Q1/12. We expect 58k net adds.
Virgin Media (VMED): No surprises expected; what is impact of increased competition?
While true that competition in both the broadband and video sectors has intensified compared to a year ago, we estimate that VMED has actually increased its share in video. For Q1/12, we don’t expect any major surprises in either the customer or financials.