Media Preview (CMCSA, DISH, VMED)

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Thomas Eagan and David Evanson

Forbes.com, Spring, 2012

Canaccord Genuity media analyst Thomas Eagan released a brief preview today of companies in his coverage universe.

Comcast (CMCSA): Continued RGU gains; positive basic adds a potential upside surprise Background and upside surprise. Comcast posted the best overall PayTV fundamentals in 2011. While the company’s FY12 OCF growth will likely be lower this year due to higher programming costs, we expect continued positive trends in customer growth

Dish Network (DISH): Net adds should (and better) continue.

Background and expectations. With the timing of the FCC decision-making on the uses of DISH spectrum likely on hold until late Q4/12 (at the earliest), the focus returns to DISH’s PayTV fundamentals. With continued push of the Blockbuster campaign into early 2012, we expect the turn-around in customer growth to continue into Q1/12. We expect 58k net adds.

Virgin Media (VMED): No surprises expected; what is impact of increased competition?

While true that competition in both the broadband and video sectors has intensified compared to a year ago, we estimate that VMED has actually increased its share in video. For Q1/12, we don’t expect any major surprises in either the customer or financials.