David Evanson and Oliver Pursche
Forbes.com, Summer, 2012
There has been plenty of market volatility for active traders to enjoy (or cry over when they get the timing wrong), making investing for most of us a bit more uneasy.
Although the S&P 500 is up nearly 17% over the past year, the swings have been significant.
The first quarter of 2012 saw the S&P climb some 13%, only to lose 11% in the second quarter. The old Wall Street axiom “Sell in May and Walk Away” worked in May, but not since then, with markets hitting multi-year highs this week.
In spite of all this volatility, defense related stocks have not only performed very well, but have also demonstrated significantly less volatility than the overall market.
Some of my favorite names in the defense space are: Lockheed Martin (LMT), which boasts solid earnings growth and a 4.4% dividend yield. Raytheon Corp (RTN), which has gained more than 40% in the past 12 months, will provide investors with a 3 ½% dividend yield and a strong history of raising its dividend.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) has also been a stellar performer with a dividend yield above 3%. Northrop’s 5 year expected EPS growth rate is near 11%–the strongest in the category. Lastly, I’m also a fan of General Dynamics (GD). General Dynamics has underperformed the sector as a whole and has been a bit more volatile than the others. However, I believe management has successfully addressed some of the challenges the company has faced over the past couple of years, and could become a star performer.
As we head toward the November elections, I expect the market to continue to rally. Historically, stocks have fared well in the months leading up to the election, but have sold off a bit thereafter.
In the case of defense-related stocks, this may become exaggerated, as defense spending cuts are likely to occur. None-the-less, I think that the aforementioned companies have done a good enough job at expanding their business’ into Internet security and other “modern” areas that should help them continue on their recent path of broader market outperformance and better-than-average risk-adjusted returns, and predictable dividend income.